Defiant North Korea launches long-range rocket



United States officials confirm that North Korea appears to have carried out the successful launch of a long-range rocket.



The move comes as a surprise to the international community, which has consistently called on North Korea to abandon its efforts.



Less than 24 hours earlier, the North Koreans had indicated they were grappling with "technical uncertainties" that forced them to extend the launch window to Dec. 29.



The secretive regime insists its efforts are part of a peaceful space program intended to place a satellite into orbit. But the U.S. and key Asian allies believe it is a thinly disguised attempt to test an intercontinental ballistic missile aimed at furthering development of the technology needed to mount a nuclear warhead on a long-range rocket that could one day reach the U.S.



National Security Council spokesman Tom Vietor called the launch a "highly provocative act that threatens regional security."



In recent weeks even China, North Korean's only remaining ally, sent a high level delegation into Pyongyang to convey a message of constraint. Today, China expressed "regret" over the incident. In the past, China has supported North Korea's right to develop its space program.



"The action is yet another example of North Korea's pattern of irresponsible behavior," read the National Security Council statement. "The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korean provocations and is fully committed to the security of allies in the region."



North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) acknowledged the launch initiated at 9:49 a.m. local time and followed its intended trajectory, traveling south between Korea and Japan.



"At no time was the missile or the resultant debris a threat to North America," said NORAD.



Japan's emergency alert system – M-NET – recorded the rocket's flight path directly over Okinawa just after 10:00 a.m. Officials say they have located three points of debris: One in South Korea's Yellow Sea, a second location further down the country's west coast and the third point 180 miles north of the Philippines.



A South Korean military official confirmed that one of their three warships, equipped with the Aegis radar system, detected the launch. The first stage fell just below Byeonsanbando, southwest of the Korean peninsula, exactly where it was supposed to, according to the official.



Increased attention focused on North Korea in recent weeks as satellite images showed action at the Tongchang-ri launch site. But on Monday, a statement from the Korean Committee of Space Technology claimed that scientists and technicians "found a technical deficiency in the first-stage control engine module of the rocket carrying the satellite." Satellite images also revealed that a new third-stage booster was delivered to the launch pad on Saturday.



A key issue is how far the rocket traveled and whether it was able to successfully separate its second and third stage rockets. If so, the capacity to travel long distances would be greatly enhanced.



The type of rocket is believed to be the Taepodong 2 missile. The North Koreans refer to it as the Unha-3, which in Korean translates as "Galaxy-3." The same type of missile has been previously tested three times in 2006, 2009 and 2012. Each time, the rocket failed soon after launch. It is believed to have the capacity to travel a minimum of 3,400 miles. That puts it well within striking range of the western U.S.




The U.S. had mobilized four warships in the Asia-Pacific region to monitor the launch. The guided missile destroyers the USS John S. McCain, the USS Benfold and the USS Fitzgerald joined the guided missile cruiser the USS Shiloh to "reassure allies in the region" according to officials.



South Korea's president Lee Myung-bak called an emergency security meeting in response. The timing is particularly sensitive for this country which is still officially at war with North Korea.



In just one week, South Korea holds key elections and will choose a new president. North Korea's successful launch could potentially sway voters favoring either a harsher line or a return to the "Sunshine Policy" of past administrations.



Current ruling party candidate Park Geun-hye has indicated a willingness to hold talks with North Korea.



Her father, Park Chung-hee, served as the South Korean president for 16 years. He was the target of multiple assassination attempts by North Korea. One of those efforts killed his wife, Chung-hee's mother.



Park took over her mother's duties as first lady until her father was assassinated by the chief of security in 1979. She re-emerged in 1997 as an active politician and is the first female candidate to be seriously considered for president.



Her party, the Saenuridang, is a traditionally conservative group that adapts a somewhat stricter policy towards North Korea that her opponent, Moon Jae-in. As head of the Democratic United Party, he champions a more lenient approach to the South's belligerent neighbor.



In repeated breaking news announcements throughout the day North Korean state-run television celebrated the launch. "We are proud of the glorious success of our satellite technology," said the presenter. "This is a landmark achievement."



Dec. 17 marks the one year anniversary of the country's Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's death. Analysts believe his son and successor, Kim Jong-Un, is under pressure to show the world he is intent on continuing his father's "Military First" policy and demonstrate a show of strength.



While experts do not believe North Korea currently has the technology to mount a nuclear warhead, today's launch is a significant development for the closed country's new leader.

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Australian prank call radio to donate profits to nurse’s family






CANBERRA (Reuters) – The Australian radio station behind a prank call to a British hospital will donate its advertising revenue until the end of the year to a fund for the family of the nurse who apparently took her own life after the stunt, the company said on Tuesday.


Southern Cross Austereo, parent company of Sydney radio station 2Day FM, said it would donate all advertising revenue, with a minimum contribution of A$ 500,000 ($ 525,000), to a memorial fund for the nurse, Jacintha Saldanha, who answered the telephone at the hospital treating Prince William’s pregnant wife, Kate.






The company has suspended the Sydney-based announcers, Mel Greig and Michael Christian, scrapped their “Hot 30″ programme and suspended advertising on the station in the wake of the Saldanha’s death. Southern Cross said it would resume advertising on its station from Thursday.


“It is a terrible tragedy and our thoughts continue to be with the family,” Southern Cross Chief Executive Officer Rhys Holleran said in a statement.


“We hope that by contributing to a memorial fund we can help to provide the Saldanha family with the support they need at this very difficult time.”


(Reporting by James Grubel; Editing by Robert Birsel)


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BlackBerry Messenger 7 adds free Wi-Fi voice calling, split-screen multitasking and more






Research in Motion (RIMM) updated its BlackBerry Messenger to version 7 on Monday, adding a new key feature called “BBM Voice” that “will allow customers to make free voice calls to their BBM contacts around the world over a Wi-Fi connection.” BBM 7 also introduces multitasking with split-screen, which allows users to BBM, check email, or use other apps while on a BBM Voice call; new compatibility with Bluetooth headsets and accessories, 16 new emoticons; direct BBM Update Notification that provides in-app alerts when new versions of an app are available and an easier way to synchronize BBM profiles; Groups; and Contacts with BBIDs for simpler backup and restores. BBM 7 is available as a free update for all BlackBerry smartphones running BlackBerry 6 OS or higher. Users on BlackBerry OS 5 will get BBM Voice “early next year.”


“BBM began as a convenient and effective business messaging tool, and today it is an essential part of daily communications for customers around the world,” said T.A. McCann, RIM’s Vice President of BBM and Social Communities. ”Now, with BBM version 7, customers have a new option: they can text and talk with their BBM contacts near and far, for free.”






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Novo bets on high-price niche for obesity drug






LONDON (Reuters) – Denmark’s Novo Nordisk is sizing up a high-price niche market for its drug liraglutide as a weight-loss treatment, with the United States the prime opportunity.


The premium-price approach could turn it into a multibillion-dollar-a-year product, the company believes.






Novo is studying the injected drug – already on the market as a treatment for type-2 diabetes under the brand name Victoza – as a therapy for the seriously obese, with pivotal clinical trial results due in the first half of next year.


While some in the industry are sceptical about using so-called GLP-1 diabetes drugs such as liraglutide to fight obesity, Novo’s Chief Science Officer Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen believes the approach can offer cost-effective benefits.


Glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, drugs work by stimulating insulin release when glucose levels become too high. Their ability to induce weight loss is an added benefit, since type-2 diabetes is linked to obesity.


What is more, the willingness of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to license new obesity pills from Vivus and Arena Pharmaceuticals last summer shows the door is open to such new medicines, Thomsen said.


“It’s positive. More physicians are now knowledgeable that pharmacotherapy can make a difference and the political establishment in the U.S. now knows that behavior change alone is not enough,” he said in an interview in London.


More than a third of American adults, or some 100 million people, are obese and the figure is rising fast, posing a growing threat to the nation’s health.


Among this population group, liraglutide may help the severely obese, including those with related problems like interrupted breathing during sleep and pre-diabetes, who might otherwise receive stomach surgery.


“We are not going out to treat the 100 million … We see this as solving a problem in a niche of maybe a few million patients,” Thomsen said.


“If you took one million patients and gave them liraglutide at 3.0 milligrams (a day) at the U.S. price that would be a $ 6 billion market.”


When used in diabetes as Victoza, liraglutide is given at daily doses of either 1.2 or 1.8 mg. Novo is betting on a higher dose to produce greater weight-loss in the obese. A key unknown is whether this will produce unacceptable side effects – and Thomsen admits this makes it something of a “joker” in the company’s line-up of new products.


The main adverse effect of Victoza is nausea in some patients, although this is not strong enough in itself to account for the weight loss seen with the drug and Thomsen does not see nausea as a hurdle to regulatory approval.


More worrying, would be any evidence that high-dose liraglutide is linked to pancreatitis.


Given the high safety bar required for a new obesity drug, analysts are currently divided as to whether liraglutide will make it for weight loss – especially given past disappointments with diet drugs such as Sanofi’s Acomplia.


If all goes according to plan, however, Novo aims to file for approval at the end of next year, implying a potential U.S. launch in late 2014 or early 2015 for a product that would add a new string to the bow of the world’s biggest maker of insulin.


Medications/Drugs News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Egypt opposition fears violence from Brotherhood


CAIRO (AP) — They showed a military-style precision: Crowds of bearded Islamists proclaiming allegiance to Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi and chanting "God is great" as they descended on tents set up by anti-Morsi protesters outside the presidential palace, swinging clubs and firing rifles. They set up a detention facility, interrogating and beating captured protesters.


The scene from bloody clashes outside the presidential palace a week ago hangs over Egypt's political crisis, as a daunting sign of how much more violent the confrontation could become between Morsi's Islamist supporters and the opposition that has launched a giant wave of protests against him.


Opponents of Morsi accuse his Muslim Brotherhood supporters of unleashing highly trained cadres — fired up with religious slogans — to crush their political rivals. They fear last week's violence was a signal that the Brotherhood will use force to push its agenda and defend its political gains in the face of a persistent protest movement demanding that Morsi withdraw a draft constitution largely written by his Islamist allies.


Ahead of a new mass rallies planned by both sides Tuesday, masked gunmen attacked anti-Morsi protesters in Cairo's central Tahrir Square before dawn, firing birdshot at them and wounding nine. It was unclear who was behind the attack, said security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the press.


Officials from the Brotherhood and its political party deny using violence to quell critics. They say its supporters last week were defending the palace when police failed to do so, though by the time of the violence the only protesters outside the palace were around 100 conducting a sit-in in the tents.


Brotherhood officials accuse former regime supporters and paid thugs of waging an organized campaign to topple Islamists from power and point to a series of attacks on Brotherhood offices the past weeks. Morsi supporters say they suffered more deaths and injuries during last Wednesday's bloody clashes that left at least eight people dead.


But testimonies and videos that have emerged from the nearly 15 hours of street clashes last week show an organized group of disciplined Islamists, working in units and carrying out military-type exercises as they broke up the tent sit-in at the palace.


Opponents of the Brotherhood frequently accuse the group of running a "militia." The group is known for its tight discipline, and it acknowledges that many of its young members undergo organized martial arts training — but it vehemently denies forming any militias.


Tharwat el-Kherbawy, a former Brotherhood member and now an opponent of the group, said the Brotherhood's central organizational doctrine — calling on members to "hear and obey" their leaders — gives it a military-like structure.


When the Brotherhood met a stronger than expected protest movement, "they had no hesitation in hastening to implement their ideas and resorting to violence," he said. "If their empowerment project is facing resistance, this resistance must be quelled."


During last Wednesday's fighting, nearly 140 anti-Morsi protesters were detained, tortured and interrogated at a makeshift center set up by the Brotherhood along the walls of the presidential palace, according to witnesses. The detained protesters were filmed making forced confessions that they had received foreign funds, according to some who were held and an Egyptian journalist who snuck into the site.


One of the victims, Yehia Negm, an Egyptian diplomat, told The Associated Press he was dragged on the ground to the center where he was beaten. He is suffering from multiple injuries in the head, eye, nose, and ribs from beating and had remains of pellets in his forehead from gunfire during the clashes.


"When they found my ID that says a diplomat, they started accusing me of working with security agencies, of being a spy and of serving foreign countries," Negm said. "They rained beatings down on me. They started yelling at me, saying, 'You infidels, you want to burn the country down, you are not Muslims.'"


Around 20 Islamists manned the center, made up of metal barricades erected against the palace wall, said Mohammed Elgarhy, a local journalist with the daily Al-Masry Al-Youm who snuck into the detention center and spent nearly four hours there. Among them was a man he recognized as a well-known Brotherhood lawyer and two others he overheard speaking with a Brotherhood leader. The others, who he said he believed were Brotherhood members, carried out the beatings and interrogations.


"The Brotherhood were carrying out the job of the Interior Ministry," Elgarhy told AP. "They would arrest anyone they suspected and bring here ... asking them questions such as who paid for you to come here."


Troops from the Central Security Forces guarded the site, but did not interfere, he said.


The violence came a day after hundreds of thousands marched on the palace in Cairo's upper middle class district of Heliopolis, demanding Morsi withdraw the draft constitution and sweeping powers that he had given himself in a series of decrees.


After the giant rally, around 100 protesters set up a tent camp outside the palace. In response, the Brotherhood called a "general mobilization" of its members, and its spokesman said the group will protect the legitimacy of the president and state institutions.


The next day, last Wednesday, thousands of Islamists lined up on a main boulevard near the palace, chanting "Power, Resolve, Faith, Morsi's men are everywhere," and threatening to douse the opposition tents with gasoline, according to video of the scene posted on YouTube.


The Islamists then stormed the camp, chanting "God is great" and "Islamic law is fundamental in Egypt," as they tore down tents and chase away the small group of protesters. They ransacked the tents' contents.


Brotherhood supporters claimed they found evidence of drug use at the camp — though they never showed any — and that burnt charcoal and processed cheese in the tents proved the protest was foreign funded, without explanation. The accusations were reminiscent of those leveled by the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak against the protesters who rose up against his rule in early 2011.


As news of the attack spread, more anti-Morsi protesters arrived on the scene. Buses, shown in videos parked nearby, brought in Brotherhood supporters. By sunset a full-fledged street battle transformed Heliopolis into a war zone.


The battle spread out over at least three fronts near the palace. Protesters and witnesses put the number of Morsi supporters at up to 12,000 compared to several thousand protesters.


Bearded men in short robes waved sticks in the air as they chased groups of young men and women down darkened alleys while gunfire echoed in the background.


A resident of a building overlooking one front line said Morsi supporters appeared to be operating by what a well-rehearsed plan. They came prepared with metal sheets for barricades and motorcycles with small trailers attached brought loads of stones to pelt protesters with. The resident spoke on condition his name not be used for fear of retribution.


Some Morsi supporters were armed with rifles, firing from the edges of the front lines to avoid being detected, said Mahmoud Zaghloul, a 22-year old protester who got hit with a rock in his head. He also said many in the Morsi camp came prepared with helmets with plexi-glass face screens.


At least one video shown on a private TV station shows a man in the Morsi camp, wearing a full helmet, taking a professional shooter position, bending his knees and aiming with a rifle.


"One of the most disturbing things was how they chanted 'God is Great' as they aimed at us," as if they were firing at infidels, Zaghloul said.


Some in the anti-Morsi camp also had firearms, witnesses said. At least one amateur video circulating online that showed an anti-Morsi protester pointing a pistol from behind a barricade at the opposing camp.


The exact circumstances of the online videos could not be independently confirmed, but their contents were consistent with other AP reporting.


Mourad Aly, a Brotherhood party spokesman, said the number of Brotherhood members injured, killed and shot is higher than those on the other side, indicating the pro-Morsi side was the victim.


"The group and the party don't use violence and have no inclination to the use of violence," he said. He said the Morsi supporters were protecting the site, saying, "We will never allow an attack or breach on the palace."


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BlackBerry Messenger 7 adds free Wi-Fi voice calling, split-screen multitasking and more






Research in Motion (RIMM) updated its BlackBerry Messenger to version 7 on Monday, adding a new key feature called “BBM Voice” that “will allow customers to make free voice calls to their BBM contacts around the world over a Wi-Fi connection.” BBM 7 also introduces multitasking with split-screen, which allows users to BBM, check email, or use other apps while on a BBM Voice call; new compatibility with Bluetooth headsets and accessories, 16 new emoticons; direct BBM Update Notification that provides in-app alerts when new versions of an app are available and an easier way to synchronize BBM profiles; Groups; and Contacts with BBIDs for simpler backup and restores. BBM 7 is available as a free update for all BlackBerry smartphones running BlackBerry 6 OS or higher. Users on BlackBerry OS 5 will get BBM Voice “early next year.”


“BBM began as a convenient and effective business messaging tool, and today it is an essential part of daily communications for customers around the world,” said T.A. McCann, RIM’s Vice President of BBM and Social Communities. ”Now, with BBM version 7, customers have a new option: they can text and talk with their BBM contacts near and far, for free.”






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Australian prank call radio to donate profits to nurse’s family






CANBERRA (Reuters) – The Australian radio station behind a prank call to a British hospital will donate its advertising revenue until the end of the year to a fund for the family of the nurse who apparently took her own life after the stunt, the company said on Tuesday.


Southern Cross Austereo, parent company of Sydney radio station 2Day FM, said it would donate all advertising revenue, with a minimum contribution of A$ 500,000 ($ 525,000), to a memorial fund for the nurse, Jacintha Saldanha, who answered the telephone at the hospital treating Prince William’s pregnant wife, Kate.






The company has suspended the Sydney-based announcers, Mel Greig and Michael Christian, scrapped their “Hot 30″ programme and suspended advertising on the station in the wake of the Saldanha’s death. Southern Cross said it would resume advertising on its station from Thursday.


“It is a terrible tragedy and our thoughts continue to be with the family,” Southern Cross Chief Executive Officer Rhys Holleran said in a statement.


“We hope that by contributing to a memorial fund we can help to provide the Saldanha family with the support they need at this very difficult time.”


(Reporting by James Grubel; Editing by Robert Birsel)


Europe News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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AstraZeneca starts mid-stage TB drug trial in South Africa






LONDON (Reuters) – A new experimental drug that may fight drug-resistant strains of the lung disease tuberculosis is being tested in South Africa, where the first patient has been enrolled into a mid-stage clinical trial.


AstraZeneca, which developed the medicine known as AZD5847, is working with the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine on the Phase IIa clinical study.






Scientists have found an alarming number of cases of TB that are resistant to many of the most powerful existing antibiotic drugs, underlining the need for new treatments.


AstraZeneca’s new drug is still several years from reaching the market. Even if it works in the trial, further tests will still be needed before it is approved for use.


The British drugmaker said on Tuesday it planned to test AZD5847 in further clinical trials as part of one or more next-generation combination therapies against TB.


(Reporting by Ben Hirschler; Editing by Helen Massy-Beresford)


Medications/Drugs News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Elijah Wood, Aaron Paul rally fans to save north Hollywood taco joint






LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Elijah Wood and Aaron Paul are on a mission to save a North Hollywood taco stand.


The actors are rallying fans around Henry‘s Tacos, which has been on the corner of Tujunga and Moorpark for 51 years and is closing December 31 due to a conflict with the building’s landlord.






In an announcement posted on Facebook, the stand’s owner, Janis Hood, said that running the restaurant is too much of a burden for her – but the landlord, Mehran Ebrahimpour, isn’t allowing “prospective buyers committed to continuing the tradition” to take over the lease.


The reason, Hood believes, is because she “unwittingly” angered him by nominating Henry’s to become for a Historic Cultural Monument a year ago. Ultimately, the city council never voted on her request, but the damage was done.


Once loyal customer Wood heard the news, he immediately took to Twitter: “Los Angeles institution, Henry’s Tacos to shut,” Wood tweeted. “Please retweet. Very sad situation.”


Over 250 followers and counting have heard his cry, including a few famous friends like Aaron Paul, Colin Hanks and “Bridesmaids” director Paul Feig.


“This can’t happen. Save LA history,” Feig added, after retweeting Wood’s words.


But instead of just wishing for a Christmas miracle, Paul has a plan – not to mention a cool opportunity for his fans. The “Breaking Bad” star is asking “the masses” to join him for lunch this coming Sunday.


“We must save @HenrysTacos from closing,” he tweeted. “Come join me for lunch this Sunday at 2pm!! Join the masses and eat some tacos!! Tell your friends.”


While he may bring Henry’s some extra business before serving its last burrito, owner Hood makes it seem like the chances of changing Henry’s fate are slim.


“The current prospective buyers have agreed to all the landlord’s terms, but he has ceased communicating with them,” she wrote. “Therefore, I have given my notice and it has been accepted by the landlord.”


Neither Hood nor Ebrahimpour immediately responded to TheWrap’s request for comment.


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Can Obama avoid the 'second-term curse'?


By Jeff Greenfield



Poor Barack Obama. After fighting and spending his way to a close but clear re-election, he’s doomed to four years of agony thanks to that “second-term” curse, which afflicts just about every president who has had the misfortune to win another four years.



The litany appears compelling: the martyred Lincoln; Grant mired in scandal; FDR suffering big political setbacks; Nixon’s disgrace; Reagan’s Iran-Contra scandal; Clinton’s impeachment; George W. Bush’s collapsing popularity. A second term sounds so unappealing, it’s almost surprising Obama didn’t ask for a recount.



Except…there are two things worth remembering about this “curse.” First, it doesn’t really afflict every second-term president. Second, for many presidents, the woes are rooted in actions and decisions taken during the first term—which raises a dicey question about what might come to afflict this president.



Theodore Roosevelt was enormously popular throughout his “second” term (his “first” term was finishing the assassinated William McKinley’s second). The only reason he did not win an actual second term was that, just after his 1904 landslide, he’d declared he would not run again—a decision he regretted almost immediately. (He ran again in 1912 as a third-party candidate, finishing second.)



Calvin Coolidge, elected in a landslide after assuming the presidency when Warren Harding died, presided over four years of peace and prosperity. He stepped down after, declaring, “I do not choose to run for president in 1928.”



Dwight Eisenhower’s Republican Party did suffer serious election reversals in the 1958 mid-terms, but Ike’s personal popularity remained very high in his second term; he left with a 59 percent job approval rating, and his vice president came within a whisker of succeeding him.



What about more recent examples? Reagan’s popularity took a hit when the Iran-Contra story surfaced at the end of 1986, but by the time he left office, he had a robust 63 percent job approval rating, and his vice president won a solid popular vote victory and an electoral college landslide.



And the disgraced Clinton? It’s certainly plausible that his year-long fight to survive scandal and impeachment seriously weakened him. His dependence on his base may have made it impossible for him to reach across the aisle on entitlement reform. But he left office with a 66 percent job approval, and his vice president did win the popular vote.



It’s often said that a second-term victory gives a president an exaggerated sense of his own power, leading him to commit the sin of “hubris” that is always the precursor to tragedy. And history offers examples, from FDR’s attempt to pack the Supreme Court, to George W. Bush’s attempt to partially privatize Social Security.



But take a step back and you’ll find a surprisingly neglected aspect of this history: In many cases, it was what a president did before re-election that planted the seeds of disaster.



Look at Vietnam. The escalation of that conflict began early in 1965, with the bombing of the North and the infusion of large numbers of U.S. troops. But the foundation of that escalation came in the summer of 1964, in the Gulf of Tonkin, when an (almost certainly phantom) attack on U.S. ships led LBJ to win, from a credulous Congress, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, authorizing the president to use “all necessary force”—which Johnson interpreted as a virtual blank check.



Watergate? The story exploded early in Nixon’s second term, in the courtroom of Judge John Sirica. But the Watergate break-in and the allied sins of the White House “plumbers’ unit” all took place in the president’s first term—in large measure, to ensure that he’d win again.



The Clinton impeachment? Monica Lewinsky came to the White House as an intern pressed into service because of the government shutdown of 1995. Her affair with the president ended before his second inauguration.



For Bush, the central disaster of his second term was the descent of Iraq into civil war and chaos, and the collapse of the rationale for going into Iraq in the first place—those non-existent weapons of mass destruction. That invasion and the breathtaking failures of intelligence and strategy were rooted in the decisions made in 2002-03.



So, if we’re wise to look at first-term decisions that may come to haunt a second term, what’s the most likely source of future Obama nightmares?



They come, I think, mostly from abroad, where the potential for instability, violence and anti-American hostility could make presidential decisions look very bad. Imagine Egypt turning increasingly Islamist, with a besieged President Morsi—or a successor—repudiating the peace treaty with Israel that has kept the region free of all-out war for 40 years.



Imagine Iraq exploding into a new civil war, or aligning itself with a still-governing Assad in Syria, or with Iran. How would that make Obama’s decision to withdraw from the country look? Pakistan—America’s permanent “frenemy”—is always a step away from turning into a hostile, terrorist-friendly, nuclear power. That step would throw a harsh light on U.S. policy toward that nation.



Should any of those events transpire, expect to hear renewed cries that “the curse of the second term” has struck again. But before joining the chorus, take a hard look at where the trouble really began.



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